As the United States and its allies engage in military action against Iran, with the MOU on peace looking increasingly fragile, much of the world’s attention is focused on security, geopolitics, energy markets, and economic disruption. Yet there is another consequence that receives far less attention. Decades of research show that armed conflict often makes religious freedom conditions worse. For those concerned about freedom of religion or belief, this presents a sobering reality: even when military action is undertaken for legitimate security reasons, war frequently increases religious persecution, social hostilities, and government restrictions rather than reducing them.
This concern is particularly relevant in Iran. According to Pew Research Center’s latest global study of restrictions on religion, Iran ranks among the world’s most restrictive major countries when both government restrictions and social hostilities involving religion are considered together.
As the accompanying chart illustrates, Iran sits in the upper-right quadrant among the world’s 25 most populous countries, reflecting both very high government restrictions on religion and high levels of social hostilities involving religion.
The relationship between conflict and religious freedom is not merely theoretical. Global research that Professor Roger Finke and I conducted found that armed conflict is among the strongest predictors of religious persecution and conflict. War tends to increase government controls, heighten social tensions, fuel suspicion of minority communities, and create conditions in which religious groups become convenient targets. In short, conflict often deepens the very conditions that undermine religious freedom.
The latest findings from Pew Research Center suggest that this challenge extends far beyond Iran.
In 2023, the number of countries experiencing high or very high social hostilities involving religion rose from 45 to 55, marking the third consecutive year of increase. At the same time, 58 countries had high or very high levels of government restrictions on religion, only one fewer than the highest number recorded since Pew began tracking these trends.
The chart above tells an important story. India stands out as having both very high government restrictions and very high social hostilities, making it one of the most challenging environments for religious freedom among the world’s largest countries. Pakistan, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Iran also face significant levels of both restrictions and hostilities. China occupies a different position, with some of the highest government restrictions in the world but comparatively lower levels of social hostilities. By contrast, countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Africa remain in the lower-left quadrant, where both restrictions and hostilities are relatively low.
The chart also helps explain why I became increasingly interested in engaging the business community in advancing freedom of religion or belief.
As a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, I led the development of the methodology that continues to be used to measure government restrictions and social hostilities involving religion worldwide. Over time, however, it became clear that while documenting the problem was essential, the global trajectory was still moving in the wrong direction. That realization ultimately led me to found the Religious Freedom & Business Foundation, based on the conviction that making the economic and business case for religious freedom could complement traditional advocacy efforts and engage new stakeholders in addressing these persistent challenges.
The latest data tell a troubling story.
Approximately 78% of the world’s population now lives in countries with high or very high levels of government restrictions on religion, social hostilities involving religion, or both. While many countries maintain relatively low levels of restrictions, some of the world’s most populous nations, including India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Iran, face elevated challenges that affect billions of people.
For global business leaders, this is not merely a human rights concern. It is a strategic economic issue.
Religious freedom and social cohesion are closely linked to trust, and trust is one of the most valuable forms of economic capital. Trust lowers transaction costs, facilitates cooperation across differences, strengthens institutions, encourages investment, and enables innovation. When religious communities are marginalized, harassed, or excluded, trust begins to erode. Businesses face greater difficulty attracting talent, building cohesive teams, entering new markets, and maintaining stable operations.
The economic consequences can be substantial. Countries with elevated religious restrictions and hostilities tend to experience greater social conflict, political instability, corruption, and reduced investor confidence. These conditions create uncertainty that discourages entrepreneurship, undermines long-term investment, and weakens economic growth.
What is particularly concerning about the latest Pew findings is that rising social hostilities are not confined to traditional conflict zones. Countries such as Belgium, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and Russia moved into the high-hostility category in 2023. The trend suggests that religion-related tensions are becoming increasingly relevant across both developed and developing economies.
This is one reason why initiatives such as Dare to Overcome and the Religious Freedom & Business Foundation work to engage business leaders in advancing freedom of religion or belief as both a human dignity issue and an economic imperative. Inclusive workplaces and societies are not simply more just; they are also more resilient, innovative, and prosperous.
The lesson emerging from nearly two decades of global data is clear. Societies that protect freedom of religion or belief, respect human dignity, and create space for people of different faiths and convictions to contribute fully are better positioned to generate trust, economic opportunity, and human flourishing. Conversely, societies characterized by rising restrictions, increasing hostilities, and armed conflict often face growing instability and diminished prospects for long-term prosperity.
As the conflict involving Iran unfolds, these lessons deserve careful consideration. Military outcomes may shape borders, security arrangements, and geopolitical alliances. But if history is any guide, the conflict is also likely to affect religious freedom on the ground, and not for the better.
For policymakers, business leaders, and civil society alike, the challenge is not only to seek peace. It is to build societies where people of all faiths and beliefs can contribute freely, fully, and peacefully. The evidence increasingly suggests that human dignity, religious freedom, social trust, and economic prosperity rise or fall together.
